Orlando Housing Market Update, September 2026: What July's Numbers Say About Rates, Prices, and Your Next Move

Short version: Orlando's median home price was $410,494 in July 2026, about two percent above last year. Homes took 64 days to sell and most agents report more seller concessions than a year ago. Mortgage rates are higher than they were last September, and the Fed's next move might be up. Below is what that adds up to in dollars, and what it means if you're buying, selling, or waiting.

If you have been sitting on the sidelines in Orlando, waiting for mortgage rates to come down before you buy or before you sell, this month's numbers are worth ten minutes of your time. Three of them matter, and one of them surprised me.

I'm Chad Gibson with the Dreamtown Homes Team at LPT Realty. I've lived in Orlando for sixteen years, I've been selling homes here for about six, and I come out of teaching, which is why I'd rather show you the arithmetic than tell you how to feel about it. Every number below links to where it came from.

Where Orlando actually landed in July

These are the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association's July 2026 numbers, the most recent full month. August comes out around the middle of September, and I'll cover it when it does.

The median home price in Orlando was $410,494. That is down about $6,000 from June and up about $8,000 from July of last year, so call it two percent higher than a year ago. Prices came off June's peak the way they do most summers, and they are still above where they were.

2,720 homes closed, down seven percent from June but up from last July. 12,043 homes were for sale at the end of the month, which works out to 4.4 months of supply. ORRA calls six months balanced, so on paper this is still a seller's market.

On paper.

The number I actually care about

Homes took 64 days to sell in July, up from 62. And when ORRA surveyed its own agents, 68 percent said they are seeing more seller concessions than a year ago: closing costs, rate buydowns, a roof. Redfin, which measures the city limits with a different method, says 38 percent of Orlando listings took a price cut this summer.

So put July together. Prices are holding. Sellers are paying to get to the closing table. If you are buying, you have more room to negotiate right now than you have had in years. If you are selling, that room is coming out of your pocket, and you want to decide up front what you are willing to give.

Rates are higher than they were a year ago

This is the one that surprised me. Freddie Mac's 30-year rate for the week of September 3 was 6.71 percent. A year ago it was 6.50. After a full year of everybody waiting for rates to fall, they are higher than they were last September.

The reason is that inflation has not cooperated. The Consumer Price Index was running 3.4 percent in July, and the Fed wants two. The Fed's own rate sits at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and at the July meeting three of the twelve people voting wanted it higher. They voted to raise.

The Fed meets again September 15 and 16. Depending on the day you check, the market has the odds of a hike somewhere between a coin flip and two to one. Nobody is pricing a cut.

The Fed, in dollars

Here is what the headlines never do. Take a $400,000 house in Orlando with 20 percent down, so a $320,000 loan.

• At last year's 6.50 percent, principal and interest is $2,023 a month.
• At 6.71 percent, as of September 3, it is $2,067. Forty-four dollars more.
• If the Fed hikes and mortgage rates drift up a quarter point, to 6.96 percent, it is $2,120. Another fifty-three.

That is the whole rate drama of the last twelve months: about a hundred dollars a month on a $400,000 house. Your property taxes and insurance on that same house move more than that in a bad year.

The rate is only half of what waiting cost you

The house moved too. Orlando prices are up about two percent, so the $400,000 house you are looking at today was about $392,000 last September. Run last year's house at last year's rate against today's house at today's rate:

	Last September	Today	Change
Price	$392,000	$400,000	+$8,000
20 percent down	$78,400	$80,000	+$1,600
Loan	$313,600	$320,000
Rate	6.50%	6.71%
Monthly principal and interest	$1,982	$2,067	+$85 a month

About $44 of that was the rate. About $40 was the house. A year of waiting cost $85 a month, every month, plus $1,600 more down. If you are waiting on the Fed, the number moved against you both ways, and nothing on the table right now says next year is cheaper.

I know this from the wrong side. My first house, I was house poor, and I know exactly what it feels like to have the payment eat everything. Then a few years ago I gave up a 2.5 percent mortgage, on purpose, and took a 5.99 to get the house we actually wanted. My payment went up a lot, and almost none of that was the rate. It was the bigger house. The rate was the line everybody asked me about. The house was the line that changed my payment.

Two tax-bill deadlines this month

Your TRIM notice. If you own in Orange County, your Notice of Proposed Property Taxes came in August. If you think the county's market value on your house is wrong, you can file a petition with the Value Adjustment Board. A value petition is free to file, and the deadline is Friday, September 18, 2026. Here is the catch: your tax is figured on your assessed value minus your exemptions, not on the market value. If you have had your homestead for years, the assessed number is capped by Save Our Homes and probably sits well under what the county says the house is worth, so knocking the market value down only lowers your bill if it drops below the assessed value. This is mostly a move for people who bought recently, when the two numbers are close. It is an argument about a number, so bring comps from around the start of the year, photos, and the condition of the house. How you feel about the bill does not come into it.

The November amendment. There is a property tax amendment on the November ballot, and the ballot wording was just rewritten after a judge found parts of the original misleading. The wording changed; the proposal did not. I am not going to tell you how to vote. Once the language is final I'll walk through exactly what it would do to your bill, in a post of its own.

What this means if you're buying, selling, or waiting

If you are buying. This is the most negotiating room Orlando buyers have had in years. Twelve thousand homes to pick from, 64 days on market, sellers paying concessions. Ask for the closing costs. Ask for the rate buydown. Negotiate for the roof, the air conditioner, the water heater. And do not wait for a rate that might be going the other way.

If you are selling. Price to July, not to 2024. Expect to give something at the closing table, and decide up front whether you would rather give price or concessions. If you are holding a low rate and telling yourself you cannot move, sit down and run every line on the page. The rate is one of them, and it is rarely the one that decides it.

If you are waiting. You are waiting on a committee that could not agree with itself in July. They might cut next year. They might hike next week. Meanwhile the Orlando numbers say the negotiating room is here now, and it will not wait for them either.

The bottom line

Orlando prices are about two percent above last year and sellers are paying to close. Rates are higher than they were a year ago and the Fed's next move might be up. All of that rate drama comes to about a hundred dollars a month on a $400,000 house, and the year you spent waiting already cost you $85 a month. Make the decision on the house and the tax bill, because that is where the money actually is.

If you want to run your own numbers, your house, your payment, your taxes, I do a free 30-minute call where we write the whole page down together. No pitch. Schedule a free call here.

Sources

• Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association, Housing Market Narrative, July 2026 (median price, closed sales, inventory, months of supply, days on market, member concession survey)
• Spectrum News 13, August 17, 2026 (ORRA July data coverage)
• Redfin, Orlando housing market (share of listings with a price drop, three months to July 2026)
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 3, 2026 (30-year fixed 6.71%; 6.50% one year earlier)
• Federal Reserve, FOMC minutes, July 28–29, 2026 (target range, 9–3 vote) and the FOMC meeting calendar
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, July 2026 (released August 12, 2026)
• Orange County Comptroller, Value Adjustment Board (2026 petition deadline and fees)

Payment figures are principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed loan of $320,000, computed with the standard amortization formula; taxes, insurance and HOA are extra. Numbers as of September 7, 2026.

Chad Gibson, LLC · SL3471542 · Dreamtown Homes Team · LPT Realty · Licensed in Florida